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New Essential Polling Formula released

MEDIA RELEASE: Essential Research yesterday published polling on voting intention for the first time since the 2019 Federal election, with a new methodology that gives deeper insight into the public mood.

“Our Essential Report, published with Guardian Australia, will now include undecided voters in its reporting, creating a “2PP+” index that will give a voice to the least engaged in the electorate.

Critically, Essential will only publish these figures quarterly to mitigate the tendency to report on minor movements as some sort of political horse race.

The 2PP+ is part of an overhaul of the Essential Report following a 12-month review into the performance of political polls in Australia and internationally in recent times.

The Essential Report’s new 2PP+ addresses a lack of nuance in traditional voting intention statistics. Even in the final poll of the campaign before the 2019 election, seven per cent of Australians could not give an opinion even though they were required by law to vote.

We are confident the new polling model will provide valuable insight into the national mood without purporting to be a political scoreboard.

Additionally, by only releasing the series of fortnightly polls on a quarterly basis, we will be removing the tendency to read surplus meaning into statistically irrelevant movements.

Every three months we will also be releasing the previous six fortnightly polls as a single data set.

The topline results will be made public, but we will also be offering full breakdowns of the figures to organisations and individuals who will be asked to contribute through a modest subscription to help support the costs of the research.

These ‘Essential Insights’ will include:

  • Full breakdowns of federal primary vote & 2PP+
  • Primary & 2PP+ state votes for NSW, Victoria & Queensland
  • A quarterly in-depth look at polling on a key issue (e.g. jobs)

For more details on the ‘Essential Insights’ service offer, which we will be launching in October, register your information here.”

The Essential Report summarises the results of a fortnightly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Qualtrics.

Website: Essential Research

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